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CFA Romania : Impact of novel coronavirus to be felt strongly until the first quarter of 2021
More than half of CFA Romania analysts estimate that the impact of the novel coronavirus will be felt strongly by the first quarter of next year and the anticipated budget deficit for this year is 8.4%, reads a press release of the organization sent on Thursday.
The average value of expectations indicates a decline in gross domestic product of 4.4% for 2020 and for the unemployment rate this value stands at 7.3%.
"Since April of this year, four additional questions have been added to the survey, and the results for June 2020 show the following: the economic impact of the new coronavirus - most respondents (53.3%) anticipate that it will be felt strong by the first quarter of 2021, the deficit of the state budget anticipated for 2020 - the average value of expectations is 8.4%, the evolution, in real terms of the GDP in 2020 - the average value of expectations is -4.4%; unemployment rate at the end of 2020 - the average value of expectations is 7.3%," the release states.
At the same time, CFA Romania analysts estimate a depreciation of the national currency, the leu, in the next 12 months, and the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 4.9608.
Moreover, over 74% of the participants in the CFA Romania survey consider the real estate prices in the big cities to be overvalued.
On the other hand, in June 2020, the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association decreased compared to the previous month by 1.9 points to the value of 34.1 points. Compared to the same month of the previous year, the indicator decreased by 16.8 points. According to CFA Romania, this evolution was caused by the anticipation component of the indicator.