CFA Romania: Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator went up in November

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of CFA Romania Association went up by 0.4 points in November, to 33.7 points.

“This situation was due, on one hand by the increase by 2.2 points of the current condition aspect, and on the other hand, the drop by 0.5 points of the anticipation aspect.

The anticipated inflation rate for 12 months went up to an average value of 10.68%.

“Inflation anticipations returned to the growing trend, showing a two figure inflation for 2023. The drop of the purchase power due to inflation will influence consumption next year. In these conditions, 2023 economic growth anticipations dropped to a value of 1.3%”, says Adrian Codirlasu, CFA – vicepresident of the CFA Romania Association.

As for the euro/leu exchange rate, over 90% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the nexy 12 months (compared to the present value). Thus, the average anticipation value for 6 months is 5.0279 lei for 1 euro, while for 12 months the average value is 5.1021 lei for one euro.

The state budget deficit anticipated for 2022: the average anticipation value dropped to 6.6% and for 2023the estimated value is 6.2%.

For 2023 the anticipate GDP increase is 1.3%.

The public debt in GDP grows to 56% in the next 12 months.

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