EBRD slashes outlook for Romania's economic growth this year to 2.8%

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has sharply revised downwards its estimate for the growth of Romania's economy in 2022 by 1.6pp to 2.8%, in its first economic forecast since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Projections are subject to an exceptionally high degree of uncertainty, including major downside risks should hostilities escalate or should exports of gas or other commodities from Russia become restricted, the EBRD cautioned.

Compared to 2019 (before the pandemic), Romania's economy will grow this year by 6.0% - a performance that is inferior, however, to those of Hungary (+6.2%) or Poland (+7.3%) but superior to those in the countries placed by the EBRD in the same basket: Bulgaria (+4.7%) or Greece (+2.8%).

In 2023, the Romanian economy is expected to grow by 4.2%. The war in Ukraine will have a severe impact on economies, "far beyond the immediate area of the conflict," the EBRD said in the report on the prospects of the economies where it operates.

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