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EFE Commentary: Romania, a key element in the NATO security architecture in south-east Europe
Romania is a NATO key element in its security architecture in south-east Europe, where there is a joint border of 650 km with Ukraine, reason for which the Russian offensive against Kiev could have serious consequences for Romania as well, says EFE in a commentary.
According to the Spanish news agency, which quotes the statements of the Romanian expert in Russian matters, Armand Gosu, there are three possible scenarios. The most favourable, which Gosu considers impossible is that according to which a diplomatic agreement would avoid war.
The second scenario, and the most probable, would be the Russian intervention to happen through mercenaries and limit to eastern Ukraine, controlled by the Pro-Russian separatists.
The final, third scenario, considered to be the most serious would be a Russian intervention in the Odessa and southern Ukraine, very close to the border with Romania.
An offensive in southern Ukraine
‘This would be a nightmare for Romania, especially if Russia opens a corridor at the Black Sea in Transniester and on the Danube’ says Gosu for EFE, referring to the Pro-Russian separatist territory, which on paper belongs to the Republic of Moldova, says the Spanish news agency.
If this scenario materialises, thing which the Romanian expert considers unlikely, the NATO bases in Romania would be very close to the territories occupied by Russia.
War in southern Ukraine would start an avalanche of refugees towards Romania and Gosu does not see his country- one of the poorest members of the EU, says EFE – prepared to receive ‘tens of thousands’ of displaced persons.
Claudiu Degeratu, former high official with the ministry of defence in Bucharest, excludes the possibility of the Romanian troops getting involved in Ukraine. ‘If it happens, the intervention would be only humanitarian’ he says.
After the illegal annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula Crimea by Russia, in 2014, NATO offered support to Ukraine as cyber security and, due to its geographical position and the human resource in this domain, Romania played a leading role, says EFE. ‘If NATO has to double its assistance in cyber security, Romania could increase its contribution’ Degeratu explains.
Promises with military
Besides the fact that they rejected Russia’s pretensions that NATO withdraws from Romania and Bulgaria, the US and other western countries promised to consolidate the presence of the North-Atlantic Alliance at its eastern borders in case of a new conflict in Ukraine.
The president of France, Emmanuel Macron, announced his openness to send troops to Romania and the US are prepared to send to Europe 8,500 military, a part of these troops to reach Romania.
Romania welcomed these initiatives, restating its interest to receive more troops in order to consolidate the deterrence capacity designed by the allies in the region of the Black Sea.
More NATO troops in Romania
‘We expect that NATO admits the need to deploy more standing troops in Romania, which could participate to deterrence activities’, says Degeratu.
At present, there is a small contingent of US troops, mainly dedicated to training the host military on the Romanian territory, at the Black Sea. Multinational troops of NATO conduct joint exercises in the area on a regular basis.
The crisis in Ukraine could make Romania get closer to the level of allied military presence existing in member states on the North flank, such as Poland and the Baltic states – Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.
Russia, major concern for security
Since the Russian invasion of Crimea, Romania has considered as number one priority of foreign policy to deter Russia, says EFE.
Besides the fact that they allocated to military expenses 2% of the GDP, as NATO required, Romania qualified Russia as a major concern for security in the national context, according to the National Strategy for Defence of the Country, for the period 2020 – 2024.
Russia continues to qualify as ‘ aggressive” NATO’s attitude, despite the fact that the almost 30,000 soldiers that Moscow deployed in Crimea – at less than 400 km from the Romanian territory – surpass the numbers that the Alliance has deployed on the eastern flank, says EFE.