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INSCOP Poll: Mircea Geoana, favorite in the presidential race, followed by Ciolacu and Simion
Mircea Geoana, the incumbent deputy general secretary of NATO, is the first choice for the presidential elections, as an independent candidate, with approximately a quarter of the voting intentions, according to the data of a survey carried out by INSCOP commissioned by News,ro.
Moreover, more than half of those surveyed say they will definitely go to the polls.
The poll variants also reveal that the chairman of Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), George Simion is the ideal opponent in the 2nd round, where he would lose to possible opponents.
The survey also includes questions regarding the options for the 2nd round of the presidential election, AUR leader George Simion losing in an election in which Mircea Geoana, Marcel Ciolacu or Nicolae Ciuca would be the opposite candidates.
Another option is that of a round 2 with Emil Boc, who would beat Marcel Ciolacu by a close score, but would lose to Mircea Geoana.
To the question “If there were presidential elections next Sunday, how sure are you that you would go to vote?” (% total sample)”, 16.9% answered “sure, no”, and 57.2% answered “sure, yes”.
Regarding the options for the presidential elections, most go to the independent candidate Mircea Geoana, both in the case of respondents who express their preference for the candidates from the list, and in the case of those who express their preference for the candidates from the list and declare that they are going for sure to vote.
In the first situation, Geoana would have voted by 25.3%, and in the second, by 24.6%. Mircea Geoana is followed, in order, by Marcel Ciolacu, George Simion, Nicolae Ciuca, Diana Sosoaca, Catalin Drula, Dacian Ciolos, Kelemen Hunor.
The survey also evaluated five options for the 2nd round of the presidential elections, the question asked being: “If the following were to reach the 2nd round of the 2024 presidential elections, which of them would you vote for?” (% of those who expressed a voting option)”.
Three of the variants take into account a 2nd round in which AUR leader Geroge Simion would have Mircea Geoana or Marcel Ciolacu or Nicolae Ciuca as counter-candidates. In the version in which Mircea Geoana and George Simion would reach the 2nd round, the score would be in favor of the current deputy general secretary of NATO, respectively 63.5% – 36.5%, being the candidate best placed in relation to the AUR leader.
A final of the presidential race that would have Marcel Ciolacu and George Simion as protagonists would have the score 58.8% – 41.2%. The closest score would be if in the second round the presidential position was contested by Nicolae Ciuca and George Simion, the score being 52.2% – 47.8%, in favor of the liberal leader. Two other options are those of a round 2 Emil Boc – Marcel Ciolacu, with a very close result in favor of Boc, the difference being less than one percent, 50.4% – 49.6% or Mircea Geoana – Emil Boc, of this the winner was given to Mircea Geoana, with 59.9%-40.1%.