INSCOP survey: Ciolacu, Simion and Geoana - in the first places in the intention to vote in the presidential elections

Marcel Ciolacu, the PSD candidate for the position of President of Romania, is leading in the voting intention ranking for the first round of the presidential elections, according to a survey conducted by INSCOP Research between October 11-18, 2024.

He is followed by George Simion, the AUR candidate, and Mircea Geoana, an independent candidate.

According to the INSCOP research, in relation to those who have expressed their preference for a candidate from the list, regardless of whether they declare they will definitely vote or not (78.1% of the total sample, error +/-3.3%), the voting intention ranking is as follows:

• Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) - 24.1%

• George Simion (AUR) - 20.7%

• Mircea Geoana (independent) - 18.1%

• Elena Lasconi (USR) - 15%

• Nicolae Ciuca (PNL) 8.2%

• Cristian Diaconescu (independent) - 5.1%

• Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) - 3.8%

• Cristian Terhes (Romanian National Conservative Party) - 1.9%

• Ludovic Orban (PMP and FD) - 1.9%

• Ana Birchall (independent) - 0.9%

• Other candidate - 0.4%

For the second round of the presidential elections, INSCOP presents the following scenarios:

• Marcel Ciolacu vs. George Simion. If Marcel Ciolacu and George Simion were to reach the second round of the presidential elections, 56% of respondents who have chosen a candidate would vote for the current Prime Minister, and 44% for the AUR leader.

• Marcel Ciolacu vs. Mircea Geoana. If Marcel Ciolacu and Mircea Geoana were to reach the second round of the presidential elections, 55.6% of respondents who have chosen a candidate say they would vote for the former NATO Deputy Secretary General, and 44.4% for the current Prime Minister.

• Marcel Ciolacu vs. Elena Lasconi. If Marcel Ciolacu and Elena Lasconi were to reach the second round of the presidential elections, 53% of respondents who have chosen a candidate would vote for the current Prime Minister, and 47% for the USR leader.

• Marcel Ciolacu vs. Nicolae Ciuca. If Marcel Ciolacu and Nicolae Ciuca were to reach the second round of the presidential elections, 63.1% of respondents who have chosen a candidate say they would vote for the current Prime Minister, and 36.9% for the PNL leader.

The INSCOP opinion poll was commissioned by the newspaper Libertatea.

The data was collected between October 11-18, 2024, using the CATI method (telephone interviews), with a simple, stratified sample volume of 1106 individuals, representative of significant socio-demographic categories (gender, age, occupation) for the non-institutionalized population of Romania, aged 18 and over.

The maximum allowable data error is +/-2.95%, with a confidence level of 95%.

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