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INSCOP survey: Geoana, in first place in presidential voting intentions, with 26.2%, followed by Ciolacu, Sosoaca, Simion and Ciuca
Mircea Geoana, the Deputy Secretary General of NATO, is leading in the voting intentions for the presidential elections with 26.2%, according to a survey commissioned by News.ro and conducted by INSCOP. He is followed by Marcel Ciolacu, Diana Sosoaca, George Simion, and Nicolae Ciuca.
If Geoana does not run, Ciolacu takes the first place with 27.4% of the votes, followed by Sosoaca, Simion, and Ciuca.
“It is observed that Diana Sosoaca, and George Simion are competing for the same segment of voters, which means that an increase for one automatically results in a decrease in the voting intention for the other,” stated INSCOP Research Director Remus Stefureac.
The voting intention for Sosoaca, has increased by 4.3% compared to September, surpassing Simion, who has 4.7% fewer voting intentions than in September.
On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means “definitely not” voting and 10 means “definitely yes” voting, 13% of Romanians chose 1, 1.7% chose 2, 1.6% chose 3, 1.2% chose 4, 6.2% chose 5, 2.1% chose 6, 2.9% chose 7. 7% indicated 8, 6% – 9, and 57.6% – 10. 0.7% represents the proportion of non-responses.
Voting Intentions for Presidential Elections (Scenario 1)
In the first scenario, which replicates the measurement from September, the list included the following potential candidates: Mircea Geoana (independent), Marcel Ciolacu (PSD), Diana Sosoaca, (SOS Romania), George Simion (AUR), Nicolae Ciuca (PNL), Catalin Drula (USR), Dacian Ciolos (REPER), and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR).
In relation to those who expressed a preference for a candidate from the list, regardless of whether they declare they will definitely vote or not (83.1% of the total sample), 26.2% of voters would vote for Mircea Geoana (independent) (compared to 25.3% in September 2023), 20.8% for Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) (compared to 19.5% in September 2023), 14.4% for Diana Sosoaca, (SOS) (compared to 10.1% in September 2023), and 14% for George Simion (AUR) (compared to 18.7% in September 2023).
Nicolae Ciuca would be chosen by 12.1% of voters (compared to 11.2% in September 2023), and Catalin Drula (USR) by 4.2% (compared to 5.6% in September 2023). Dacian Ciolos (REPER) would be chosen by 3.9% of voters (compared to 4.1% in September 2023), and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) by 2.4% (compared to 2.7% in September 2023). 1.9% say they would vote for another candidate (compared to 2.8% in September 2023).
Voting Intentions for Presidential Elections (Scenario 2)
In the second scenario, the list included the following potential candidates: Marcel Ciolacu (PSD), Diana Sosoaca, (SOS Romania), George Simion (AUR), Nicolae Ciuca (PNL), Catalin Drula (USR), Dacian Ciolos (REPER), and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR).
In relation to those who expressed a preference for a candidate from the list, regardless of whether they declare they will definitely vote or not (76.4% of the total sample), 27.4% of voters would vote for Marcel Ciolacu (PSD), 19.1% for Diana Sosoaca, (SOS), and 18% for George Simion (AUR).
Nicolae Ciuca would be chosen by 14.1% of voters, and Catalin Drula (USR) by 7.1%. Dacian Ciolos (REPER) would be chosen by 6.7% of voters, and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR) by 2.7%. 4.9% say they would vote for another candidate.
“INSCOP Research tested two voting scenarios for the presidential elections, one including only the leaders of the main political parties as candidates and another one including Mircea Geoana as an independent candidate alongside political leaders. As we approach the presidential election and the number of potential candidates increases, the list of people tested in these sociological surveys will accordingly be modified. Compared to September, we observe slight increases in the voting intention for Mircea Geoana, Marcel Ciolacu, and Nicolae Ciuca, but also a greater increase in the case of Diana Sosoaca,, an evolution that correlates with a decrease in the voting intention for George Simion. Essentially, similar to the voting for political parties, we observe that Diana ?o?oaca and George Simion compete for the same segment of voters, meaning that an increase for one automatically results in a decrease in the voting intention for the other,” stated Remus Stefureac, Director of INSCOP Research.