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Opinion poll: AUR down, PNL up in voting intention poll after Ukraine war starts
The Alliance for the Union of Romanians (ARU) has fallen on the third place in the Romanian voters' intentions, while the Social Democratic Party (PSD) continues to lead the ranking of voting intentions, and the National Liberal Party (PNL) has returned on the second place, according to an INSCOP MONITOR poll, conducted March 2-7 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
According to the poll, PSD is still topping the intention to vote at 32% as against 32.7% in February, followed by PNL at 19.9%, as against 16.6% in February. AUR drops on the third place at 18.9%, as against 22.4% in February, and the Save Romania Union (USR) levels out at 10.8%.
"PSD and USR keep their electoral score before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The slight uptick for PNL could be ascribed to the recent intense activity of the President and the prime minister, which is gaining points from very high visibility in association with credibility benchmarks such as NATO and the EU. The slight decrease for AUR can be explained by the disappearance of the formation from the forefront of public attention, doubled by accusations brought by the media and political opponents regarding the pro-Russian attitudes of some AUR members or persons associated with it," according to INSCOP.
It is not known at this time if the effects of the war in Ukraine on the voting intention are temporary due to the emotional context, or they will deepen.
"Certainly, the way in which the parties in the ruling coalition deal with the huge security and socio-economic challenges will strongly influence the voting intention. Just as the position of the opposition parties towards Russia's aggression and the consequences of this invasion to the security and quality of life in Romania will have effects on the voting intention."
The nationally representative INSCOP MONITOR poll was conducted by telephone interviews on March 2-7, 2022 on a sample of 1,077 respondents. The maximum allowed error is +/- 3%.