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Piraeus Bank: We expect that the evolution of the GDP in Romania present the highest growth
The week 12-16 May is rich in announcements of the macroeconomic indicators in the whole world, being programmed and some important speeches culminating that of the head of FED Janet Yellen. In the CEE region there will be published the GDP indicators for Q1 2014 in Romania, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. In the middle of the timid economic relaunh both at regional and global level,the expectations are that the GDP in Romania will have the highest growth, surpassing that of the countries in the region, a report issued by Piraeus Bank on Monday said.
On Monday, the National Institute for Statistics published the inflation for April. The monthly inflation was 0.27% at the annual level with a growth of the prices of 1,21%. The average inflation for the last 12 months is 2.5% annually, while in harmonised terms 2,1%.
The price of food dropped in April by 0.06% against the previous month and with 2.29% agasnt April 2013, the prices of non-food increased by 0.67% monthly and 3.04% while the prices of the services went down by 0.05% monthly, going up to 3.91%. The highest growth of prices were recorded in fuel and tobacco, growth which was partially balanced by significant losses of the prices of some food and drops in the prices of electricity and natural gas.
The industrial production in March increased by 1.1% monthly, by diminishing the rhythm of growth from 1.3% in the previous month, growing by 11.6% in terms adjusted by season. In Q1 of 2014, the industrial production increased by 10.1% in non-adjusted season terms and by 10.7% in adjusted season terms.
The commercial deficit of Q1 2014 increased by 3.8% per year at euro 1,12 billion, being the result of some exports FOB of euro 12,75 billion, + 10.1% per year and some CIF imports of euro 13,87billion , +9.6% per year.
The foreign currency market
The pair euro/usd opened the session on Monday at 1,3753, coming back to 1,3765, the perspective to the announcement this week of inflation and GDP in the EU being factors which can bring alteration in the euro, and at the same time, the monetary policy of BCE.
The foreign currency in the European emerging region is quoted mixed today, the leu starting at 4,4330 lei/euro and having the evolution around this currency non-influenced by the published economic announcement.
Monetary market
In the session on Monday the interest rates continue to drop, similarly the yields involved in foreign currency swaps which are are 3.0% for O/N and T/N and for one week at 2,50% , 2.70% in the context of improved liquidity on the monetary market.
The bonds market
The ministry of finances sold today, according to the plan, four hundred million lei in bonds with residual maturity of three years paying an average yield of 3.95% and a maximum yieldof 3.97%.The secondary market of bonds in lei continues to be calm.
Precious metals
The prices of precious metals are slightly higher at the beginning of this week, in the context of amplified tensions in Ukraine, which give value to the character of refuge asst of the gold.