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Surprise at 2016 locals: Nicusor Dan and USB
Although he lost, Nicusor Dan seems to be the big winner at local elections. With candidates of the party led by him - Save Bucharest Union (USB)- present on lists in almost all Bucharest sectors, Nicusor Dan wants to expand to the whole country to enter Parliament.
Who is Nicusor Dan?
Ten years ago, Nicusor Dan set up Save Bucharest Association and sued Bucharest mayoralties that ignored the rules of urbanism. With little notoriety he won he ran as an independent in the 2012 locals and won 10% when Sorin Oprescu was supported by USL (the alliance between social-democrats and liberals, which functioned between 2011 and 2014). Since he was not backed by a party, Nicusor Dan missed the General Council of the Capital. “To avoid a repetition of the 2012 episode, we decided to set up a party,” said Nicusor Dan last year before launching his party, USB. On Sunday, he turned the apartment size party into the second political force in Bucharest, outrunning the mighty PNL.
“Nicusor Dan is rather an anti-hero than a hero. He is a person with special charisma, different from the politicians of Basescu, Iliescu or Constantinescu ages,” says sociologist Barbu Mateescu. In campaign the anti-hero Nicusor Dan introduced himself as the anti-politician who had come to save the Capital. “People understand very well. When I say I am not a politician, I mean I am not corrupt.” With this anti-system message, Nicusor Dan convinced Bucharest electors: he got 30% of votes, 10% behind Gabriela Firea and about 20% before the liberals (PNL).
“It is an anti-party vote which governed the city. It was a vote both against PSD and PNL. Although PSD got the Power in Bucharest, the opposition is no longer PNL. The opposition is Nicusor Dan. The alternative is no longer left-right but rather old politicians against new politicians,” says sociologist Mircea Kivu quoted by “Adevarul”.
From this stand, USB succeeded, in the Sunday elections, to get a large number of local councillors in five of the six sectors of Bucharest (they did not have any candidates in sector 5), and the General Council of Bucharest. With these figures Nicusor Dan announced the result: USB turns into Save Romania Union (USR). The aim of the party is to pass the election threshold at Parliamentary elections in the Fall. “We want to enter Parliament and be a real opposition to those parties,” said Nicusor Dan.
What are his chances? “Chances depend on the capacity of the new USR to get branches quickly and have national coverage. However it is difficult to copy the Bucharest success at the autumn parliamentary elections in different counties,” thinks political analyst Radu Magdin.
Sociologist Barbu Mateescu thinks that: “Nicusor Dan has chances if he works hard to build local infrastructure. He must investigate which local parties are likely to merge with USB. That’s hard work. The ratio between polling presence in the rural and local areas. I don’t know whether there is time for the new party to penetrate the rural area a lot. To pass the 5% threshold the party needs 10% in the urban area in case it gets nothing at rural level. It is crucial to cross the election threshold. Nicusor Dan gets into the shadow in case he does not cross the election threshold.”
In this context, it is interesting to analyse the profile of USB Sunday electors: votes came in a proportion of 51% from women and 49% from men. Nicusor Dan was voted mainly by young people: 19% of his electors are 18 to 29 years old, while 32% are 30 to 39 years old. Only 14% of Bucharest voters aged over 60 chose the USB candidate.
In exchange, more than half of people who voted Gabriela Firea (PSD), the new Bucharest mayor are women whole 49% are people over 60, according to an IRES opinion poll showing the profile of Bucharest electors. The first woman mayor in Bucharest got less votes from young people 18-29 years old (8%). 26% of Firea’s electors graduated from general or vocational schools, 42% are high school graduates and 32% are college graduates.