RSS
The National Commission for Prognosis: the unemployment rate will drop in 2017 to 4.6%
The rate of unemployment will drop in 2017 to 4.6% against 4.8% as it is estimated to be until the end of this year, a report published by the National Commission of Prognosis (CNP)on Thursday shows.
The highest rate of unemployment is estimated to be that of the region South-West Oltenia which will drop from 7.8% in 2016 to 7.7% in 2017. At the other end will be Bucuresti-Ilfov where the unemployment rate will drop from 1.7% in 2016 to 1.6% in the coming year.
The dropping trend of the unemployment rate will continue in the years to come, thus in 2018 it will reach, as a whole for the economy, 4.4% and in 2019 it will reach 4.3%.
CNP: 4.3 pct economic growth in 2017
National Prognosis Commission (CNP) estimates a 4.3 pct economic growth in 2017, with a nominal value of RON 807.4 billion, shows a publication of the institution.
Also, the institution estimates a 7.3 pct increase of exports, up to RON 61.8 billion, and an 8 pct increase of imports, resulting in a trade deficit of RON 11.4 billion.
Regarding inflation, it is forecast at 2.3 pct at the end of the year, and will have an annual average of 1.9 pct.
According to CNP, the median exchange rate of RON/EUR is forecast at 4.46 RON/EUR.
The average number of employees is estimated to exceed 4.88 million, rising by 2.8 pct, while the number of unemployed persons will go up to 420,000 persons, namely a rate of 4.6 pct, going slighty down compared to 2016, by 0.2 percentage points. The total population employed estimated in 2017 is over 8.53 million, in growth with 0.6 pct.
The net median wage is forecasted at RON 2,176, rising by 6.3pct compared to 2016.
Economic growth for Bucharest – Ilfov to decrease in 2017 and 2018
The National Prognosis Commission (CNP) estimates, for the current year, an economic growth of 5.5 pct for Bucharest - Ilfov, the biggest of the country's regions, it being expected to decrease in 2017 and 2018 to 4.3 pct and in 2019 to recover to 4.6 percent, shows a publication of the institution.
The Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated at over 205.9 billion lei for this region, being more than double than for any other region taken separately.
Ranking second, as far as economic growth is concerned, are the West and North-West regions with 5.2 percent, and third, the North-East region with 5 percent. The following positions are occupied by the Centre region, with 4.5 percent, South Wallachia with 4.3 percent, South-East with 3.8 percent and South-West Oltenia with 3.3 percent.
In the latest prognosis, published in November, CNP left unchanged the estimates for economic growth for 2016 and 2017, to 4.8 pct, respectively 4.3 pct, as compared to the preliminary, medium-term variant of the autumn prognosis, published in September.
In the prognosis regarding the main macroeconomic indicators for 2016 — 2020, CNP estimates for this year a real economic growth of 4.8 pct, at a nominal GDP of 758.5 billion lei and for 2017, of 4.3 pct and a value of 807.4 billion lei.
The contribution for the real growth of the GDP goes up for services from 3.1 percentage points (p.p) in the preliminary variant, to 3.3 p.p, whereas the contribution decreases in agriculture to 0.2 p.p, in constructions to 0.3 p.p and in industry it stagnates at 0.6 p.p.
As regards the structure of the GDP distributed on branches, comparing with the previous variant of CNP, in agriculture, the contribution decreases from 4.3 pct to 4.1 pct and in constructions from 7.7 pct to 7.6 pct. In industry, it stagnates at 22.6 pct, as do net taxes on products (11.1 pct). On the contrary, the contribution to services rises from 54.4 pct to 54.6 pct.
The final consumption was upwardly corrected from 7.3 pct in the previous variant of the document to 7.6 in the current one. The GDP per capita stands at the same level of 38,487 lei for 2016, and 41,199 lei in 2017.
Investment also remains unchanged, at respectively the same level of growth of 6.3 pct for 2016 and of 6.9 pct in 2017.
The World Bank is drawing attention to the fact that the economic leap of 5.1 pct recorded by Romanian economy this year, after a 3.8 pct-growth the previous year, will be followed in 2017 by a slow down of 3.8 pct, and 2018 will witness a reduction to 3.4 pct of the advance of the Romanian economy.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently estimated that Romania will record this year the biggest economic growth in Europe, of 5 pct, followed by Ireland (4.9 pct).
At the beginning of November, the European Commission has upwardly revised by a percentage point, to 5.2 pct, the estimates regarding the growth of Romanian economy this year.