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TRENDS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN THE PERIOD AUGUST – OCTOBER 2019
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Relative stability of activity in manufacturing
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Moderate growth in the number of employees in construction and retail trade
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Moderate price growth in manufacturing and construction
Romanian managers estimate for the coming three months moderate increases in the service, construction and retail sectors, an a relative stability of production in the manufacturing industry, with positive conjectural balances, a study conducted by the National Institute of Statistics (INS), published Wednesday reveals.
According to centralized data, during the conjectural study of August 2019, managers in the manufacturing industry forecast for the next three months a relative stability of the volume of production - with a conjectural balance of plus 3 pct. The biggest increase is estimated to take place in the basic pharmaceutical goods and pharmaceutical products production activity (conjectural balance +33 pct), followed by the tobacco products production activity (conjectural balance +28 pct).
Regarding the number of employees, results show a relative stability in the August-October interval with a conjectural balance of -1 pct for the entirety of the manufacturing industry. Furthermore, in the case of prices for industrial products there is a slight growth forecast for the next three months (+8 pct conjectural balance).
Managers' estimates in the construction sector reveal a moderate increase in the volume of production (conjectural balance +14 pct) in the coming three months of the year. In regards to the number of employees the conjectural balance will be plus 6 pct, and in what regards prices for construction work there is a slight increase forecast (conjectural balance +12 pct).
In the retail sector managers estimate, for the next three months, a tendency for growth of economic activity (conjectural balance +20 pct), while the volume of orders addressed to freight shippers by businesses will show a moderate increase (conjectural balance +14 pct). Furthermore, employers predict for the analyzed period a moderate jump in the number of employees, with a conjectural balance of +11 pct. In the coming period, managers of business estimate an increase in retail prices (conjectural balance +25 pct).
According to estimate done in August 2019, the demand for services (fiscal value) will show a moderate increase, until the end of October 2019, with a conjectural balance of +11 pct. Furthermore, a relative stability in the number of employees is estimated (conjectural balance +5 pct) in the service sector. In the managers' opinion, prices for sale or billing for services will see a tendency of relative stability (conjectural balance +4%).
The conjectural balance indicates the perception of enterprise managers on the dynamic of a phenomenon that must not be confused with the growth or drop rhythm of any statistical indicator produced by the INS. This is obtained as the difference between the percentage of managers that chose the positive option of the phenomenon and the percentage of those who chose the negative option.
The results published on Wednesday by the INS were obtained by conjuncture survey and reflect the estimates by enterprise managers regarding the tendencies of economic activity.