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TRENDS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN THE PERIOD NOVEMBER 2018 - January 2019
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Relative stability of activity in industry, retail trade and services
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Relative stability in the number of employees in industry and services
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Moderate price growth in industry, construction and retail trade.
The activity in industry, retail trade and services will record relative stability over the next three months, while prices will grow moderately in industry, construction and retail, according to the estimates of Romanian managers for November 2018 - January 2019.
According to a survey released on Wednesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS), the number of employees in industry and services will be relatively stable.
Thus, managers in the manufacturing industry expect a relative stability of production volume (short term balance + 1pct) over the next three months, according to the during the November 2018 trend survey. Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations should increase (short term balance + 24pct), while the manufacture of tobacco products should report a sharp decline (short-term balance -69pct).
Regarding the number of employees, relative stability is expected, with the short term balance of -2pct in manufacturing overall. Industrial prices are also expected to increase moderately in the next three months (short term balance + 9pct).
According to the November 2018 estimates, a decrease in production volume (short term balance -23pct) should be expected in construction activities over the next three months. Managers also estimate a decrease in the number of employees (short term balance -16pct). Construction prices are estimated to increase moderately (short term balance + 10pct).
In the retail trade sector, the managers expect relative stability of economic activity (short term balance + 5pct) between November 2018 and January 2019. The volume of business-to-business commodity orders should see a moderate growth (short term balance + 7pct). Employers forecast for the next three months a moderate increase in the number of employees (short term balance + 15pct).
Managers of commercial companies estimate a moderate increase in retail prices going forward (short term balance + 13pct).
According to the November 2018 estimates, demand for services (turnover) would be relatively stable over the next three months (short term balance + 3pct). In the service sector, a relative stability of the number of employees is estimated (0pct short term balance). According to the managers' opinion, selling or billing prices would witness a relative stability trend (short term balance + 5pct).
The INS says that the short term balance indicates the perception of enterprise managers of the dynamics in a phenomenon that should not be confused with the rhythm of the increase or decrease of any statistical indicator produced by INS. The percentage short term balance is obtained as the difference between the percentage of managers who choose the positive option of the phenomenon and the percentage of those who indicated the negative option.