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Coface exchange rate estimates for 2014
Coface estimates a 3-3.5% inflation this year on the background of a good evolution in the first half of the year and a stabilization of the exchange rate around 4.55 lei per euro, Constantin Coman, country manager Coface Romania declared on Wednesday. “annual inflation will be 3-3.5% this year, with a good first half of the year under 1% in the first quarter. In the second semester there will be an inflation growth on the background of inflation pressures until the end of the year,” Coman said at a press conference.
Coface estimates an exchange rate of 4.55 lei/euro.“From our point of view 2013 was a stable year, BNR policies were coherent. For 2014 we estimate an exchange rate of 4.55, the continuation of the stability tendency throughout the year. The prognosis does not take into account sudden changes in the Fed monetary policy or political problems on the local stage,” Coman said.
He showed that Romania has a high economic growth potential this year, but levers to turn to account that potential have to be identified. Coman says that exports and agroculture will remain the main engines, in conditions in which consumption is still low. For 2014 Coface estimates a growth of 2%. A similar increase (2.1%) will be registered by GDP.