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2018 Budget: Government counts of GDP increase of 5.5% to 907.85 billion lei
The government estimates a GDP increase of 5.5% next year, to 907.85 billion lei (195.5 billion euros), according the draft budget for 2018, made by the Finance Ministry, a dropping rate compared to the estimate of 6.1% made by the National Prognosis Commission (CNP) for 2017. In November, CNP reviewed positively estimates on Romania’s economic growth in 2017, to 6.1% from 5.6% at it had previously estimated.
At the same time, the government foresees a budget deficit of 2.97% of GDP in 2018, while ESA deficit will be 2.96% of GDP, within the budget deficit target of under 3% of GDP, according to Maastricht Treaty.
For next year, the government estimates an average inflation of 3.1%, while BNR estimates a 3.2% inflation for the end of 2018. The Executive counts on an average target of 4.55 lei per euro, slightly over the present level of 4.6422 lei/euro, displayed by BNR. On November 21, euro reached a record level of 4.6551 lei/euro.
The government foresees an unemployment rate of 351,000 persons and a monthly average salary of 2,614 lei.
According to data published recently by the National Statistic Institute (INS), the number of jobless people (aged between 15 and 74), estimated for October 2017, was 451,000 persons. The net average salary was 2,376 lei in September 2017, on the rise by 12 lei, compared to the previous month.
Romania’s public debt will be, on an average term (2018-2021), below 40% of GDP, according to government estimates. On September 30, 2017, Romania’s public debt was 32.951 billion lei, on the rise by 2% compared to the level recorded at the end of 2016.
In 2018, expenses for investments are estimated to be 38.5 billion lei, representing about 4.2% of GDP, while in 2020 they are estimated to be 53.3 billion lei.
Budget incomes projected for 2018 are estimated at 287.5 billion lei, that is 31.7% of GDP.
“The highest shares in total budget incomes in 2018 are recorded by contributions with 10.1%, followed by VAT with 6.8%, excises 3.3%, tax on salaries and incomes 2.3% of GDP”.
Budget expenses for 2018 are estimated to be 314.5 billion lei, representing 34.6% of GDP.
“The biggest increase is made by social assistance expenses, because of measures adopted in the pension field, of social increases for pensioners and of other social rights, which will reach 98.6 billion lei in 2018, 10.9% of GDP”.
Personnel expenses are estimated to be 81.2 billion lei, an increase if 11.6 billion lei against 2017, on the background of applying the law on salaries of people paid from public funds.
Expenses with goods and services will be 39.9 billion lei (4.4% of GDP) in 2018, while expenses with public debt are estimated at 12.1 billion lei (1.3% of GDP).
Investment expenses in 2018 will be 38.5 billion lei (4.2% of GDP), on the rise by 13 billion lei against 2017, according to government estimates.