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BT: Exports grow by 8% in 2018, 6.5% in 2019, while imports by 9.1% in 2018 and 8.3% in 2019
Andrei Radulescu, the chief economist of Transylvania Bank (BT) says in an analysis published on Tuesday, that exports and imports will grow at a slower rate than last year.
“According to the central BT macroeconomic scenario, the present dynamics of overall exports (goods and services) could drop from 9,7% in 2017 to 8% in 2018, 6.5% in 2019 and 6.3% in 2020, prospects supported by the maturity of the global and European economic cycle and pressures in the area of the international competitiveness of domestic economy. As for overall imports, we foresee the attenuation of the annual evolution rate from 11.3% in 2017, to 9.1% in 2018, 8.3% in 2019 and 8.4% in 2020, an evolution influenced by balancing of domestic economic policy,” according to an analysis issued on Tuesday by Andrei Radulescu, the director of Macroeconomic Analysis of Transylvania Bank.
The deficit of the balance of trade with goods deepened by 28.7%/year in July and by 11.3% the first 7 months of 2018, on the background of the relaxed mixture of domestic economic policies and the appreciation of the national currency exchange rate, according to BT, which quotes data published by the National Statistic Institute (INS). According to INS, exports of goods grew by 12.9% to 5.9 billion euro in July.
“The community component increases by 13.6%/year to 4.5 billion euros, an evolution backed by the dynamic of euro zone (the main economic partner) to a rate over potential. Exports to extra community countries went up by 10.7%, to 1.4 billion euro. Imports of goods had a more powerful dynamic of 15.4% / year, to 7.2 billion euro, on the background of positive moment in the area of domestic demand, backed by the relaxed mixture of economic policies”, Radulescu detailed.
Imports from EU countries went up by 12.9% to 5.3 billion euro, while the extra-community component went up by 23.3%, to 1.8 billion euro. As a result, the balance of trade with goods recorded a deficit of 1.3 billion euro in July , growing up by 28.7%.
“The commercial deficit with goods is deepening in relations with extra-community countries by 111.6%, to 0.4 billion euro. The community component of the commercial deficit deepened by 9.6%/ year, to 0.9 billion euro. Over January-July, exports of goods grew by 10.4%/year, to 39.9 billion euro”, Radulescu wrote.
Moreover, the BT analysis shows the increase of the community component by 11.4%/year, to 30.5 billion euro, an evolution influenced by the euro zone potential. At the same time, exports to countries outside EU went up by 7.2%, to 9.3 billion euro.
Imports of goods showed and advance of 10.5%/year, to 47.5 billion euro, in the first seven months of the year, an evolution backed by the positive climate in the private consumption area and the appreciation of the effective exchange rate of the leu (by about 3%/year). Imports from EU countries went up by 9.4% to 35.6 billion euro, and the extra-community component went up by 14.2% to 11.8 billion euro. As a result, the balance of trade with goods recorded a deficit of 7.6 billion euro, going up by 11.3 %/year.
“There is a deepening of deficit in commercial relations with goods with non EU countries by 51.2%, to 2.5 billion euro. On the other hand, the community component of the deficit adjusted by 1.5% to 5.1 billion euro,” the BT analysis shows.