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CFA Romania analysts raise 2021 GDP growth forecast to 4.3%
CFA Romania, an association of investment professionals, expects the country's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 4.3% in 2021, and the budget gap to be equivalent to 7.2% of GDP, it said on Thursday.
Over 23.3% of CFA analysts polled in February said that the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis will be felt until the fourth quarter of 2022, CFA said in its latest monthly survey of economic confidence.
In its previous survey published in March, CFA analysts forecast a GDP rise of 4.1% in 2021 and a 7.4% deficit. CFA analysts' latest expectations are in line with than those of government, which targets 4.3% GDP growth in 2021 and a 7.16% budget deficit.
The CFA macroeconomic confidence index rose to 60.7 points in March, compared to 55.7 points in February, and was 39.9 points higher compared to the value in the same month of last year.
The CFA analysts said they expect, on average, inflation of 3.44% for the next 12 months. Romania's consumer prices rose 3.05% year-on-year in March, compared to 3.16% in February, according to national statistical office data.The CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of 4.9517 lei per euro in the next six months and 4.9903 lei per euro in the next 12 months.
The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, is an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a year. The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is compiled based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.