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CFA Romania: Budget deficit of 7.3% of GDP in 2021, public debt - 54.1% of GDP in 12 months


CFA Romania analysts anticipate a budget deficit of 7.3% of GDP in 2021 and an inflation rate of 5.8% for the 12-month horizon, according to a press release from the organization.

Thus, the average value of the anticipations for the deficit of the state budget anticipated for 2021 is 7.3%. The average value of expectations in real terms of GDP in 2021 is +6.6%, and for 2022 it stands at 3.9%. The public debt (percentage of GDP) will reach, in a 12-month horizon, about 54.1%.

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon averaged 5.8%. As to the euro / leu exchange rate, over 91% of the survey participants predict a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months (compared to the current value). Thus, the average value of the anticipations for the 6-month horizon is 5.0517 lei, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the forecast exchange rate is 5.1145 lei for one euro. Also, the lowest estimated euro / leu exchange rate for a 12-month horizon is 4.9600.

The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator decreased to 56.6 points (compared to the same month of the previous year, the indicator increased by 12.1 points). This situation was due to the divergent evolution of the two components of the indicator.

"In the context of the substantial rise in the inflation rate, inflationary expectations for the 12-month horizon continued to go up. In line with this trend, anticipations of higher interest rates on the monetary market rose, these indicating monetary policy interest at least three times higher in the next 12 months," said Adrian Codirlasu, vice-president of the CFA Romania Association.

Also, the majority of survey participants, 75%, anticipate that the economic impact of coronavirus will last at least until the fourth quarter of 2022.