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Demographic aging picking up pace in Romania, young resident population on a steady downward trend
With demographic aging picking up pace in Romania from one year to another, the young resident population of preschool and school age will continue to follow a downward trend, the National Institute of Statistics (INS) notes.
"A constant concern of official statistics is the estimation of Romania's resident population, as well as calculating specific indicators. Thus, the average age has continued to grow, reaching 42.3 years on January 1, 2022. An acceleration of the demographic aging process can also be observed, highlighted by the increase in the share of the elderly population (aged 65 and over). The demographic aging index increased from 81.0 elderly per 100 young people (as of January 1, 2005) to 120.0 (on January 1, 2022). (...) It is anticipated that the young resident population of preschool and school age will continue to follow a downward trend and will reach 3.12 million in 2030, falling further to just 2.15 million in 2060 compared to 3.47 million at present (in the 2022/2023 school year)," INS said in a release issued on Tuesday, on the occasion of World Population Day.
According to Eurostat data cited by the INS, Romania's elderly resident population (65 years and over) will reach 3.82 million by 2030 and 4.72 million by 2060, compared to 3.71 million as of January 1, 2022.
Year-over-year, as of January 1, 2022, Romania's young population (aged 0 - 14) was 4.4 percentage points down, at 16.2 percent of the total resident population, and the share of the elderly (aged 65 and over) was up from 19.3 percent to 19.5 percent (1,300 people).
The adult population (15 - 64) represents 64.3 percent of the total, down by 223,000 compared to the beginning of 2021. The share of the 15 - 19, 45 - 49, 50 - 54, 55 - 59 and 60 - 64 age groups in the total adult population has increased, while the age groups 20 - 24, 25 - 29, 30 - 34, 35 - 39 and 40 - 44 have lost ground.
As of January 1, 2022, Romania's resident population was approximately 19.043 million, with the female population standing at 9.803 million, 51.5 percent of the total resident population.
9.959 million people live in the urban environment, representing more than half of the country's resident population (52.3 percent).
As of January 1, 2022, the North-East development region (with the counties: Bacau, Botosani, Iasi, Neamt, Suceava, Vaslui) was the most populous, accounting for 16.9 percent of Romania's resident population. At the opposite end stands the West development region (consisting of the counties: Arad, Caras-Severin, Hunedoara, Timisoara) with just 8.8 percent of the resident population.
Last year, the natural increase of the resident population stayed negative (at -103,400), with all the regions of the country seeing negative values as well. The largest negative increase was recorded in the South-Muntenia region (-23,700), and the smallest was in the Bucharest-Ilfov region (-5,600 people). Significantly negative values of the natural increase were also recorded in the regions South-East (-17,500), South-West Oltenia (-14,300) and North-East (-13,100).
"The significant social developments, such as the falling birth rates, the steady negative natural increase, international migration, the change in the demographic behavior of married couples are only some of the factors considered responsible for the decrease in fertility and, implicitly, in the resident population, as well as for the change in its structure by age groups," the INS explains.
According to Eurostat, as of January 1, 2022, Romania was ranking 6th in the European Union in terms of resident population. The country with the largest population in the EU is Germany (83.237 million inhabitants), while Malta is at the opposite end, with the smallest population (521,000).
According to the UN Population Division, the world population was estimated at 7.91 billion as of July 1, 2021. The countries with the largest population are China (1.426 billion), India (1.408 billion), the USA (337 million), Indonesia (274 million) and Pakistan (231 million).
The world population is projected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100.
The largest population increases between 2022 and 2050 will occur in India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Congo, Ethiopia, the Republic of Tanzania, Egypt, the Philippines, Indonesia, Niger, Uganda, Sudan, the U.S.A. and Angola.
In 2023, it is estimated that India will surpass China as the world's most populous country.