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EBRD dropped to 1.4% estimates about increase of Romanian economy in 2024
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) significantly worsened estimates about the evolution of Romanian economy in 2024, the low demand for eternalization affecting the IT sector, according to a report released by the international financial institution, on Thursday.
According to the latest EBRD estimates, Romania's GDP would record an advance of 1.4% this year, on the drop compared to the 3.2% estimate made in May. In 2025, the increase will be only 2.6%, from 3.4% foreseen in May.
South-East European EU countries are affected by the low demand, although consumption was resilient, following solid salary increases. In Bulgaria and Romania, the rise of the lowest salary stimulated demand and also had as result the expansion of commercial deficit and was added to inflation pressures, the EBRD report shows.
On the background of low foreign demand, Romania's economic growth slowed down to 2.1% in 2023, while in semester 1, 2024 an advance of 1.3% should have been registered. Also, the IT sector slowed down signficantly, in line with global tendencies, while industrial output stagnated. On the other hand, investments in infrastructure continue to support growth. Inflation proved to be constant, following slary and pension increases. In July 2024, the annual inflation rate of 5.8% was the highest in EU, according to EBRD.
Moreover, the Central bank (BNR) reduced the interest rate to 6.5%, prospects of this summer. Fiscal policy continues to be expanding, deficit being 3.6% of GDP in semester 1, 2024, higher than in the last 3 years. While incomes had a good evolution in semester 1, 2024, following the measures announced at the end of 2023, expenses went up. Thus, capital expenses, salaries and expenses with goods and services grew by over 20% annually.
The latest estimates of the Fiscal Council show a deficit expansion of 8% of GDP in 2024, according to the report of the international financial institution.
Romania's GDP will grow by 1.4% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025, supposing that there will be a recovery in semester 2, 2024, despite the need of fiscal consolidation.
EBRD warns that the delay in absorbing European funds is a risk for the economic growth prospects.
IMF has reviewed as dropping estimates about te growth of Romanian economy this year, from 3.8% as foreseen in October 2023, to 2.8%, according to the “World Economic Outlook” released in April.
Last week, the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis reviewed on the drop to 2.8%, from 3.4% previously, estimates about this year's PIV advance.