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FlashData Pole/Presidentials: Ciolacu -24%, Simion – 19%, Geoana-16%
Social-democrat (PSD) candidate Marcel Ciolacu, would get 24% of votes in the first round of elections, if presidential elections were held next Sunday. He would be followed by George Simion (AUR), with 19% of votes, and by Mircea Geoana, independent candidate, for whom 16% of electors would vote, according to an opinion poll made by FlashData over September 5-13, 2024.
According to the study, the three would be followed by Nicolae Ciuca -13%, Elena Lasconi- 13%, Diana Sosoaca -8%, others -7%.
As for parliamentary elections, the poll measures the voting intention for parties, both in case “Mircea Geoana's party”would participate and in case that would not happen.
The question “In case parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, what paty or alliance would you vote?”, 29% of respindents chose PSD, 17% indicated PNL, 15% chose AUR, 13% USR, 6% SOS Romania, 6% UDMR, 5% Mircea Geoana's party, 9% others.
In case “Mircea Geoana's party”does not participate in elections, the study indicates te following figures: PSD -29%, PNL – 18%, AUR -16%, USR -15%, SOS Romania -6%, UDMR -6%, others 10%.
The poll also measures the presence in parliamentary and presidential elections. According to answers to the question “On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 = I certainly will not vote, 10= I will certainly vote, how sure are tou in the present conditions, that you will vote in the autumn elections?”, the presence at the autumn voting is estimated, based on the figures, 8,9 and 10, at 58% of all respondents. 4% of people interviewed do not know or would not answer the question.
The study also shows how undecided the elctors are about a candidate or party they would vote in the elections. The question “On a scale from 1 (undecided) to 10 (decided), how sure are you who to vote?” declare they know who to vote (8,9. or 10), 33% of people who answer. I don't know yet who/what I would vote (figures 1,2 3) 30%. 7% of people interviewed do not know or would not answer the question.
On the other hand, 56% of respondents consider that Romania is going in a wrong direction, 31.2% say it is going to a good direction, while 12.8% do not know or would not answer.
The poll was made on 1,100 respondents, through CATI method with a margin of error of plus/minus 3%, at a confidence level of 95%. The type of sample is probable, random, three-layered, representative for Romania's population over 18 years old, owners of a phone connection.
Data are presented in comparison , according to age, considering the participation in the local andparliamentary elections of June 2024.