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Erste: workers and exports, the risks for Romania in case of Brexit
A possible exit of the UK from the EU could significantly trouble the remittances on the part of Romanian workers who work in the British state, as well as it could affect the exports of Romania to the UK according to a report of the analysts of the Austrian bank Erste.
‘The most pessimistic scenario in the case of Brexit would be the imposition of restrictions which could force almost 170,000 Romanians with national security numbers to come back to Romania or to move to other EU countries. This could lead to a major trouble for the flow of money as the Romanian expats send home over 500 million euro per year (0.3%of GDP) according to our estimates’ the report of the Austrian bank which owns BCR in Romania says.
The economic issues which might follow for the UK after the exit from the EU could be felt in Romania as well as the British state is an important commercial partner.
" ‘If Brexit creates difficulties to the British economy as some expect, it could affect Romania’s exports especially the ‘ transport machines and equipment’ (46% of the total exports to the UK). The UK is the fifth most important destination for Romania’s exports with a share slightly over 4% of the deliveries abroad (or 2.3 billion euro), the analysts of the Austrian bank say.
The economic consequences for Central and Eastern Europe would be limited in the case where the UK leaves the EU, Erste says. The commercial exchanges are reduced, and in the case of EU exit the expectations are that the workers who come from this region to go back to their countries of origin.
The UK will organise on 23 June a referendum regarding the membership to the EU. The leaders of the member states have recently reached an agreement regarding the terms to keep the UK in the EU, the document having a clause which will allow the limitation of social benefits for the employees from the European community, under certain conditions.