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Euro/leu exchange rate may exceed 4.94 threshold
The pandemic set up a very volatile and unpredictable situation in the currency market until the middle of 2020, specialists of XTB Romania brokerage house, who estimate that commercial imbalance and a lower value of transfers from those who work abroad could take the exchange rate over 4.94.
They analyzed the evolution of the main currencies including dollar, euro and leu.
“On a short to medium term, to the liberation and effective use of funds, commercial imbalance and a low transfer value from those who work abroad could take the exchange rate over 4.94. In relation to the US dollar , in case of the strengthening of euro against the US dollar, and considering the scenario for EURRON, a slight strengthening is possible in the second part of the year, although the uncertainty level is very high,”says Claudiu Cazacu, strategy consultant at XTB Romania.
In case the recovery of developed economies continues, the single European currency could attract the attention of participants in the market.
“The sterling pound could be even more volatile than euro and the US dollar, reaching the lows of March (about 5,18) and the top of April (5.56) in the following months,” analysts say.
“Considering the additional risk of investments in RON, the USDRON quotation reached a historic high on March 23, at 4.5460. However, the leu could recover based on more optimistic prospects on world economy,”says Radu Puiu, XTB Romania analyst.
With a few exceptions, the dollar continues to register positive levels against most important currencies compared to levels recorded at the beginning of the year, although most of them recovered in the area of lows.
In this respect, the dollar evolves to a value 4% higher than the package of currencies included in the currency index of MSCI emerging market.
With more than 15 years of experience in financial markets, XTB is now one of the biggest brokers of derived instruments in the world and a complete investment company quoted on the Warsaw exchange. With offices in over ten countries including Great Britain, Poland, Germany and France, XTB is also checked by the most important supervision authorities in the world, including FCA and KNF,