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Financial analysts expect national currency depreciation in next 6 months
Financial analysts estimate a depreciation of the national currency in the next 6 months, the foreseen average being 4.716 lei/euro, while for the whole year the anticipated average exchange rate being 4.7883.
Estimates come in the context in which the Macroeconomic Confidence Index of CFA Romania dropped by 15.6 points in December versus November, to the value of 28.7 points, while the Index dropped by 12.3 points compared to the same period of 2017. This evolution was due to both Index components.
The current condition index dropped by 9.1 points compared to November, to 46.4 points (compared to the same month of 2017, the current condition index dropped by 12.5 points).
At the same time, the anticipation index dropped by 18.8 points to 19.9 points (compared to the same period of 2017, the anticipation index dropped by 12.2 points).
Over 87% of participants to the CFA opinion poll anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months. The average value of anticipations for the 6 month period is 4.7168, while for 12 months the average value of the anticipated rate is 4.7883.
The anticipated inflation rate for 12 months (January 2020/January 2019) recorded an average value of 3.93%.
At the same time, the December poll shows that most analysts expect the drop of BET index of Bucharest Stock Exchange, in the next 12 months, over 73% of respondents anticipating this evolution.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and represents an index with which the association wants to quantify the anticipations of financial analysts about the economic activity in Romania for one year.