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INSCOP Poll: PSD - 30.2%, AUR - 21.4%, PNL - 13.2%, USR 12.7% of voting intentions
Social-democratic party (PSD – at rule) is in first place in voting intention for the parliamentary elections with 30.2%, followed by the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR-opposition) with 21.4%,the National Liberal Party (PNL – partner în ruling coalition ) with 13.2%, and the Save Romania Union (USR - opposition), with 12.7%, according to an INSCOP opinion poll conducted between October 11 and 18.
According to the sociological research, the SOS Romania Party would receive 8.1% of the votes, the Hungarian Democratic Union of Romania (UDMR) – 3.7%, the Romania's European Project Renew Party (REPER) – 2.5%, PNCR (Romanian National Conservative Party) – 2.3%, the Romanian Green Party (PER)– 2.1%, the People's Movement Party (PMP )– 1.4%, and Forta Dreptei – 0.6%.
Additionally, 1.3% of respondents indicated they would vote for an independent candidate, and 0.5% for another party.
Regarding voter turnout, the poll shows that 68% of those interviewed stated they will definitely vote, while 10.5% said they definitely will not vote.
INSCOP Research Director, Remus ?tefureac, says that "the voting intention of Romanians for the parliamentary elections could lead to a veritable political earthquake, as parties with radical, populist, and sovereignist profiles (AUR, SOS Romania, PNCR) achieve a combined score of over 30%, triple compared to the results of the elections four years ago."
"The way voices from this trend resonate with the subversive narratives of Russia hostile to the Euro-Atlantic space of freedom, security, and development could create systemic difficulties for Romania in the case of an exaggerated parliamentary representation. Furthermore, the results of the presidential elections in the first round held a week before the parliamentary elections will massively influence the mobilization of loyal voters of the political parties that have candidates qualified for the second round.
In this context, the voting intention for radical, populist, and sovereignist parties could increase due to the qualification of their main candidate for the presidential final. Beyond current estimates, the final results of the parliamentary elections are marked by uncertainties caused by the electoral calendar and issues related to voter turnout on December 1," he added.
The INSCOP opinion poll was commissioned by the newspaper Libertatea.
The data was collected between October 11 and 18, 2024, through interviews using a questionnaire, in the CATI method (telephone interviews).
The simple, stratified sample volume is 1,106 individuals, representative of significant socio-demographic categories for the non-institutionalized population of Romania, aged 18 and over. The maximum allowable data error is plus/minus 2.95%, with a confidence level of 95%.