RSS
Romania's economic growth at 0.1pct in Q1 2023
Romania posted a 2.3% economic growth in Q1 2023 unadjusted and 2.8% when seasonally adjusted, both y-o-y, but, compared to the previous quarter, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was higher by only 0.1% in real terms, according to provisional data published on Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS).
"The seasonally adjusted series of the quarterly Gross Domestic Product was recalculated as a result of the revision of the estimates for Q1 2023, with no differences being recorded as against the version published in Press Release 120 of May 16, 2023," says INS.
Romania's estimated Q1 2023 GDP seasonally adjusted was RON 389.155 billion current prices, up 0.1% in real terms from Q4 2022 and 2.8% over Q1 2022.
Unadjusted, the Q1 2023 GDP was RON 312.092 billion current prices, up 2.3% in real prices from Q1 2022.
The following branches particularly contributed to the Q1 2023 GDP growth y-o-y: wholesale and retail trade; motor vehicle and motorcycle repair, transport and storage, hotels and restaurants (+0.9%), with a 22% weight in GDP formation, up 4.5% in volume; information and communications (+0.5%), with a weight of 8.2% in GDP formation, up 5.6% in volume; professional, scientific and technical services; administrative and support service activities (+0.5%), with a weight of 5.4% in GDP formation, up 10% in volume; construction (+0.3%), with a weight of 3.7% in GDP formation and up 8.5% in volume; net taxes on products (+0.3%), with a weight of 8.5% in GDP formation and up 2.5% in volume.
A negative contribution to GDP growth was recorded by industry (-0.5%), with a weight of 23.6% in GDP formation, down 2.3% in volume.
Important positive contributions were made by: the household final consumption expenditure, up 6.4% in volume, contributing +4.2% to GDP growth; the general government final consumption expenditure, up 3.7% in volume, contributing +0.3% to the GDP growth; the collective consumption expenditure of general government up 3.9% in volume contributing +0.4% to the GDP growth.
The World Bank estimates that this year Romania's Gross Domestic Product would advance 2.6%, similar to what it announced in January 2023, but the growth rate would accelerate in 2024 to 3.9%, according to the most recent edition of the "Global Economic Prospects" report published by the bank.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) significantly downgraded its estimates of the advance of the Romanian economy in 2023, from an estimated 3.1% in the fall, to now 2.4% in 2023, and a surge to 3.7% in 2024, according to the latest "World Economic Outlook" report, published in April by the IMF.
The spring economic forecasts of the European Commission show Romanian economy growing by 3.2% in 2023 and 3.5% in 2024.
Romania's National Economic Strategy and Forecast estimated this spring economic advance of 2.8% in 2023, considered to be a prudent one, amidst still high inflation, but with favourable premises as a result of positive developments in services, which could subsequently lead to improved estimates.