RSS
Study about Romania’s export potential
An export increase in the Euro area by 1%/ year would determine an increase by 1.3%/year of Romania’s exports. An investment increase in domestic activity by 1%/year will determine an export advance of 0.3%/year after three quarters. The export evgolution is indirectly correlated with currency fluctuations in currency markets. The evolution of exports is indirectly correlated with fluctuations in currency markets. For instance the depreciation of the effective rate of the national currency by 0.5%/year could determine an export rise of 0.5%/year, the Romania export Economy shows – export potential, drawn by SSIF Broker economist.
The effective interest rate for the national currency shows a depreciation tendency of 1.5%/year at present and 1.3%/year on the average.If we take into account the positive elements mentioned above we obtain provisions about the evolution of Romania’s export potential on the average term. Results show that now, Romania’s export potential is about 5.2%/year and might gradually deteriorate.
In the conclusion of the report there were conclusions. On one hand the fact that in the last months exports evolved at high rate, drawing attention on the sustainability of export dimensions on a short and average rate. On the other hand Romania’s export potential is estimated at a higher level than that of the Euro area (about 5%/ year against 3%/year?
That expresses prospects of structural convergence of domestic economy to the European Monetary Union on the average term. Results show that in Romania the export potential of domestic economy is superior to the potential rate for domestic demand (seriously affected by the world crisis). In other words exports will continue to perform at a rate superior to domestic demand. Last but not least, the export potential of domestic economy is in a deceleration tendency which will grow if we do not use investment flows in exporting branches in Romania.