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The annual barometre MoneyCorp: imports, commercial deficit and the domestic economic situation announce euro at 4.85 – 4.90 lei
This year could bring an exchange rate for the euro between 4.85 – 4.90 lei and for the dollar between 4.40 – 4.55 lei estimates the majority of the companies interviewed by Moneycorp and Frames in a survey regarding the dynamics of the evolution on the Romanian foreign currency market.
According a press release of the consultancy company Frames, the evolution of the commercial deficit and the macroeconomic situation represent the main arguments taken into consideration by the business environment.
According to the survey made online, where the representatives of over 1,000 medium and big companies in various domains – IT&C, insurance, metallurgical products importers and industrial equipment importers, FMGC and tourism – were asked, the majority of the interviewees (51.1%) estimated that at the end of 2020 the exchange rate euro/leu will be at the level of 4.85 – 4.90 lei.
The press release says that 25.5% of the interviewees see the evolution of the euro a little more temperate against the leu, in the interval 4.80 lei/euro – 4.85 lei/euro, while 3.8% situated the European currency at a level under 4.8 lei, 13.6% indicated a level of the euro over 4.9 lei at the end of the year, while 6% of the interviewees avoided to say anything.
Asked what they think the factor which influences most the dynamics of the exchange rate in Romania, most of them (32.9%) indicated the increase of the commercial balance deficit, otherwise said, the higher level of imports against that of exports.
The macroeconomic situation represents in the opinion of 26.6% of the interviewees, another reason which determines the evolution of the foreign currency market. On the list of causes were speculative foreign currency tradings (19.6%) and the evolution on the domestic political stage (18.4%).
According to the experts of Moneycorp, besides the depreciation of the commercial balance and the implications of foreign evolutions, Romania is in an area sensitive from the point of view of investment perception, especially as it passes through a period full of challenges in the domain of the budget, and the domain of politics ( governmental instability, pre-electoral period, etc.).
‘ The budget perspective for 2020 raises multiple worries. The increase of the budgetary deficit, the increase of the public debt, the perspectives regarding inflation and the discussions connected to public investments this year represent a special sign for the investors. The effects are visible in the dynamics of the national currency, a sensitive barometre of the macroeconomic situation’ he explained.
The worries regarding the economic dynamics of 2020 were associated to the uncertainties connected to the economic impact of the coronavirus epidemics which affected the world economy.
The survey made by Moneycorp and the consultancy company Frames was organized between 24-27 February on a group of over 1,000 companies in various domains, such as IT&C, insurance, industrial equipment, FMGC and tourism.
The profile of the interviewees was represented by middle and top management, with higher education, 63% men and 37% women, average age of 41.
Present since 2016 in Romania, Moneycorp is the biggest institution of payments in Europe.