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Annual inflation rate slightly down in August, to 9.43pct
The annual inflation rate slightly decreased in August this year, down to 9.43%, from 9.44% in July, in the context in which food prices rose by 11, 88%, non-food by 6.98%, and services by 11.72%, according to data released on Wednesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS).
In August, compared to July, the inflation rate was 0.54%.
"The inflation rate since the beginning of the year (August 2023 compared to December 2022) is 4.9%. The annual inflation rate in August 2023, compared to August 2022, is 9.4%. The average rate of change in consumer prices in the last 12 months (September 2022 - August 2023) compared to the previous 12 months (September 2021 - August 2022) is 13.2%," says the INS.
According to the same source, the harmonized index of consumer prices in August 2023, compared to July 2023, is 100.78%. The annual inflation rate in August 2023, compared to August 2022, calculated based on the harmonized index of consumer prices (IAPC) is 9.3%. The average rate of change in consumer prices in the last 12 months (September 2022 - August 2023) compared to the previous 12 months (September 2021 - August 2022) determined on the basis of the HIPC is 11.8%.
The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has revised upward the inflation forecast for the end of this year to 7.5%, from 7.1%, and to 4.4% for the end of 2024, according to the data presented by the Governor of the BNR (National Bank of Romania), Mugur Isarescu.
According to the presentation, the basic scenario was built considering the legislation in force at the time of the projection and does not include the impact of the fiscal consolidation measures recently discussed by the authorities. The trajectory is above the one presented in the Inflation Report of May, but with a significant change being recorded only towards the end of the current year (+0.4 pp).
It is also mentioned that there are wide uncertainties regarding the projected trajectory in the context of the likely adoption of the fiscal correction measures on the side of budget revenues, with a direct impact on CPI inflation (for example, increases in indirect taxes - VAT, excises).