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Cristian Popa (BNR): We stick to 1.5 pct economic growth in 2011
The National Bank of Romania (BNR) stays firm on its forecast of a 1.5 percent economic growth for this year and is confident the balance of risks is the same in spite of fears induced by the evolutions of the economies in the European Union fringe areas and of the figures below expectations of economic growth in Germany and the US, BNR vice-governor Cristian Popa told a seminar on the topic on Tuesday.
'We stick to the 1.5 percent as we previously had even a better figure for 2011, and for a 3.7-4 lei for a euro. BNR foresaw a lower value for 2012, therefore the figures remain the same as you already know them from the IMF and the EU. I can see a relatively symmetrical risk balance in 2011,' the central bank vice-governor said.
He said that the slumping economy of Germany might generalize and that we could have smaller figures both this year and in 2012 for economic growth.
'It is quite likely that what we perceive as a fall-off in Germany's economy might generalize and therefore the GDP might report lower values in 2012. The American economy has disappointed so far. We are still to see if the revival of capital and consumption will occur in accordance with the calendar. The figures show a 2.2 percent drop in the gross fixed capital formation in Q1, it will probably come back in Q3, so our talk does not end here,' the BNR vice-governor said.
The National Prognosis Commission has recently maintained its forecast of economic growth at 1.5 percent for 2011 and modified from 3.9 to 4 percent the economic growth forecast for 2012, in accordance with the spring prognosis published on the institution's website.
According to Agerpres, the International Monetary Fund estimates an economic growth for Romania in amount of 1.5 percent in 2011, of 3.5 to 4 percent in 2012 and of 4 percent in 2013.