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Dungaciu: The choice of a new NATO Secretary General could be decided by developments on the Ukraine front
The university professor Dan Dungaciu stated on Tuesday that, before being announced, a candidacy such as that of President Klaus Iohannis for NATO Secretary General is negotiated, as ‘it is useless announcing a candidacy without any support’ but he explained that the election of the new head of the Alliance could be decided depending on the evolutions on the Ukrainian front.
"Such nominations are negotiated before they are announced. So, probably (in the case of President Klaus Iohannis - editor's note) it was a negotiation, because otherwise there is no point in throwing a candidacy without any support. We assume there was a negotiation. Negotiations took place at a time when the United States, Great Britain and Germany have already announced their support for Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. So there is already an announcement made and support from three heavyweight NATO players. It is not just any support, it is heavy support. Of course, that doesn't mean that the game is up, because there is one actor, Hungary, who has announced that they don't want the Dutch candidate. And that could mean a kind of diplomatic steadiness, if you will, on Hungary's part, whereby it also expects to get something in return or announces that it is playing a negotiating game to earn "dividends" elsewhere. Basically, the game is being played. It's very interesting what the reactions will be from here on, because they came quite quickly to Mr Rutte, through a press conference by Mr Biden at the White House, who expressed, at the level of President of the United States, his support for Rutte", said Dan Dungaciu.
He also said that ‘the field atmosphere’ could ‘redefine the theory of West’s victory’ in the Ukrainian war, which could lead to the election of a certain type of NATO president.
"Stoltenberg's term ends in October. The American elections are in November. I don't know to what extent the choice of the next NATO Secretary General will depend on the atmosphere on the ground. I don't know to what extent things will be decided by what happens on the front, i.e. in Ukraine, and to what extent the offensive will continue, including with NATO support, even if not with an effective presence, or will it go towards a negotiation. Because depending on how things look, if you like, a NATO Secretary General will also be elected. If you want to choose a more radical Secretary General, 'set on war', so, in inverted commas, then that means you have to decide - and it's not just NATO here, but also the Americans, the European Union, the G7 - that the war should go on as long as possible, another year or two, until, no doubt, Ukraine's victory can be defined in the terms we now know. If Ukraine's victory will have to be redefined, or the theory of the West's victory will be redefined, in the sense that it will become more and more plausible, including a negotiation, I don't know, (...) a candidate might be elected who is able to support such a message", explained the political analyst.
He showed that the big battle for Ukraine is a battle ‘on the ground’ but also a battle ‘after the guns fall silent’.
‘These evolutions, I think, are the background sound of these elections. Surely, even if the soloists appear, and play the guitar, the bass of these elections will be West’s attitude, especially that of America, of the European Union and G7 towards the war in Ukraine. And depending on it, we can see the candidates, namely which candidate is better prepared for a certain type of strategy which NATO will adopt in Ukraine. It is an element, not very visible and which cannot be discussed for the moment, as we don’t know what 2024 looks like, or the end of 2024, the beginning of 2025 but surely it will be importnat in the decision of the leader’s choice, or, well, of the NATO Secretary General’ stated Dan Dungaciu.
He does not think that ‘support’ for President Klaus Iohannis’ candidacy’ cannot be judged at the present moment’.
"It's still a game, the story is still being played out, because it hasn't been decided, probably. Just so you understand: we don't now know the big decision in which direction it's going. Imagine an aircraft carrier heading for Taiwan. And, at some point, it is given the order from Australia to turn back. Well, by the time that aircraft carrier turns around, it may have received the order, but by the time we see it turn around, a very long time, we see it moving towards Taiwan, but in fact it is in turnaround manoeuvres. So we might be in this situation where we don't know if the carrier is not turning around. And then of course other leaders will have to take up the discourse and put a new victory theory on the table. Because this will be the post-war battle," Dan Dungaciu added.
President Klaus Iohannis announced on Tuesday that he decided to enter the competition for the position of NATO General Secretary.