RSS
The main risk for the next year is that the budgetary deficit increase over 3%
The main risk for next year is that the budgetary deficit increase over 3% and Romania get into an excessive deficit procedure, considers Adrian Codrlasu, the chairman of the CFA Romania, the Association of the Financial Analysts in Romania.
‘Getting into this procedure will mean tax increase, either expenditure reductions which will influence the GDP increase. We had always chosen the tax increase in general’ Codirlasu added. According to his opiion, the slowing down of the Chinese economy may be a risk for the Romanian economy, even if there is no direct impact, but through other markets.
The CFA chairman says that a budgetary deficit over 3% is very possible, taking into consideration that there are two stages of elections when the officials could ‘ give away some money’.
In general, at the beginning of the year, there was a surplus of money, but in general in the last months of the year the money is spent, taking into consideration that we have two stages of elections it is possible that the money is going to be spent. In Q1 I expect a budgetary deficit of 3.9-4% against the similar period of last year. In Q2 I expect growth rates between 4.2- 4.3%, to finish the year over 4-4.4% ‘ said Adrian Codirlasu.
The deficit of current account is growing against the previous year due to the increase of income of the consumers who want better quality products, which is reflected in a growth of imports, according to the representative of the AAFR who also noticed that the industry slowed down its increase due to the fact that EU slowed down its growth.