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Weather conditions, stopping Russian gas imports - main risks to gas supply this winter
The weather conditions and stopping gas imports from the Russian Federation are the main risks to the country's natural gas supply this winter, reads the draft of the Plan for Preventive Action on Securing Gas Supply, launched for public debate by the Ministry of Energy.
Experts in the ministry analyzed five risk scenarios, of which the cessation of gas supplies from the Russian Federation to the EU would have a major impact and an average probability of occurring. In this case, the gas deficit would be 11 million cubic meters per day.
Another risk scenario, extreme weather conditions, would have a notable impact and an average probability, and the deficit would be 5 million cubic meters per day.
Imbalances in natural gas storage would result in a lack of 9 million cubic meters under normal winter conditions, with average temperatures of -5 degrees Celsius and 20 million cubic meters per day at temperatures of -15 degrees Celsius.
At the same time, the occurrence of some failures in the national gas transmission system and on the import lines would have a major impact, but the likelihood to these to happen is low.
However, the ministry's representatives show that, from the point of view of internal supply sources, the possible incidents that may affect the production process upstream of the National Transport System can be remedied in a timely manner, in 48 hours at the most, without having a significant impact on the supply of natural gas to final consumers.
The authorities give assurances that the gas supply to protected customers will not be affected in any of the situations that would trigger the emergency situation.