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Analyst: The growth outlook for Romania's economy this year is only 1.6%
The growth outlook for Romania's economy this year is only 1.6%, down from 2.1% in 2023, Andrei Radulescu, a member of the Bretton Woods Committee and senior researcher at the Institute of World Economics, Romanian Academy, said on Thursday.
‘Which are the perspectives for the national economy? You have seen last week the first reading of the GDP for Q1. We had growth of only 0.1% in the annual dynamics, namely Q1 against Q1 2023 and the updated prognosis after this flash issued by the National Institute for Statistics shows a growth perspective for the Romanian economy with only 1.6% this year, slowing down from 2.1% last year’ said Radulescu at the conference on the management for lending risk organised by ICAP CRIF.
According to his opinion, we will assist the continuation of the investment growth trend but at a slower rhythm as compared to what happened in the previous years.
Andrei Radulescu said that in 2023, gross fixed capital formation in Romania increased by more than 14% compared to 2022, but the forecast for this year is an increase of 5% compared to the previous year.
As regards inflation, he said that this indicator will continue the convergence trend towards the interval targeted by the central bank but the harmonized indicator of the consumption prices in Romania is positioned as weaker against the countries in the European Union.
According to the economist, the upward trend of the euro-leu exchange rate will continue and will soon reach the threshold of 5 lei for one euro.
"Romania is facing major macroeconomic imbalances and these will have to be adjusted, including through the exchange rate instrument", says Andrei Radulescu.
He warned that the budget and current account deficits will remain at very high levels.