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Dan Bucsa, Bancpost: The economy won’t rebounce in 2011, recession has deepened
Romania’s economy won’t rebounce in 2011, after the recession got deeper in the second quarter of this year. The dynamics of the GDP could be situated for the next year between -1% and +1% but positive effects could not be seen in the private sector, Dan Bucsa considers, the head economist of Bancpost.
« The level of GDP is at most 3% taking into consideration the level of foreign investment of this year. If we take into consideration foreign investment have a growth potential of up to 6 billion euro per year, then the level of GDP grows to approximately 4 – 4.5%, Dan Bucsa explains, the head economist of Bancpost.
Thus, any more reduced economic growth will not lead to positive effects in the private sector.
At the same time, Bucsa considers that the rate of inflation will drop starting with July 2011 towards the interval between the central target established by the National Bank of Romania at 3%.
« Foreign direct investments in Romania won’t grow significantly in 2011. We are compared to the countries around, and the situation is unfavourable: we have the highest imbalance in Central and Eastern Europe and the weakest economic performance. The aversion to risk of investors puts pressure on the exchange rate and indirectly on interests” Dan Bucsa said. Moreover, the consumers continue to be very pessimistic, which makes rebouncing impossible by the resumption of consumption.