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INCE: Negative natural birth rate for 30 years; 2070 prognosis: 8 million people of working age


Romania lost one million persons over the last 30 years because of the negative natural birth rate and 2.6 million people through emigration in the same period of time, said Luminita Chivu, the director of the National Institute of Economic Research (INCE) of the Romanian Academy on Tuesday.

Luminita Chivu made these statements in the context of publishing the study “Quantity and quality analysis of labour market in Romania”, ordered by Concordia Patrons Confederation made by KPMG and INCE.

The study drew the attention that although the total unemployment rate is low in Romania, “among the young people we are on the first places in EU for unemployment, with 18.3%”.

About half of young Romanians intend to emigrate, Chivu mentioned.

“A study made in all member states – Use Mobility, whose results were published by the European Parliament, last year, shows that 47% of Romanian youth aged between 16 and 35 intend to emigrate in the next 5 years,” the director of INCE said.

He revealed that there are localities in Romania where the ratio  between old and young people reaches 6/1.

“The ratio between the number of people over 65 and young people under 15 varies between 2.01/1 in Teleorman county and 0.8/1 in Ilfov.  Taking an example from 78 administrative-territorial units – communes, towns, municipalities in Alba county, we have localities like Ohaba, where the ratio is 6.1/1 , that is 6 old people to a youth under 15,” Chivu declared.

She also reminded projections taken into account by the European Commission for the next 50 years in Romania.

“According to data supplied by the European Commission, the trend of overall population is seriously growing down, the people of working age dropping from 13 millions to 11 millions in 2030, and 8 millions in 2070. The dependence rate between the two categories is rising, we have a ratio of 1/1 between the number of occupied persons and that of pensioners for 2050-2060-2070. Our prognosis concerning the projection of the quantity deficit of labour force fir 2019-2030 is based on scenarios on the ballance between labour force demand and offer. The deficit evolves from 308,000 to 549,000 in 2023. We are speaking about quantity deficit to which problems of quality deficit are added,” Chivu concluded.