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Mitroi: the Romanian economy could grow by 8-9% in 2018
The Romanian economy could increase by 8-9% this year, double against the world one and triple agains the European one, says Adrian Mitroi, professor of behavioural finances in The Academy for Economic Studies (ASE).
‘The cycle of monetary adjustment closed, the interests will not be smaller, but they will be reasonable by comparison to the expectations of economic growth, which are very high. If you expect that world economy go up by 4% I have no worry that the Romanian economy will not operate between 8 and 9%. I have no doubt. In general, we are growing , over the last period, almost twice more than the world economy or three times more than the European one. The fact that fiscal measures with the usual lag, 6-9 months, will be the support for economic growth, higher interests will be the support for investments. There will be a sustained growth and creditation’ stated Adrian Mitroi for Agerpres.
He considers that the world economy is in a very good shape and the countries which buy our exports perform economically.According to him, if there is a crisis coming, it will be more punctual, more limited on a sector. ‘I see the crisis as more punctual, more sectorial, addressed to industries which must be reformed, but I don’t see it at the level of a macro-crisis. The fact that the central banks start to give some freedom to the economy it is good for the economy. Expectations are, on the one hand, inflationist and a position against inflation, counter-cyclic to inflation but there are also expectations for sustainability of the economic growth’ Mitroi said.
According to the professor ‘ some are worried by inflation a little to fast and too much’.Adrian Mitroi thinks that central banks are wrong as they tighten the policies too quickly and adjust them too late.
‘Our bank is a good example on this subject. Central banks, in general, are wrong. They tighten the policies too quickly and adjust them too late. This means they will compete against one another to reduce the monetary incentives, in the message sent from over the seas, in main;” it is almost over with the favourability of the monetary support of the economy, you have fiscal stimuli, now it is time for you to handle it on your own’ This message of a central bank puts pressure on interests, on dollars on the upwards trend, on the euro on the upwards trend, which seemed a solution for those with much desire for risk. The new reality which we have to adapt to is that of volatility, especially as regards interests, probably less on foreign currency. This is what makes us understand the message given by the central bank’ Mitroi said.