RSS
The Fiscal Council: the revised macroeconomic scenario of the government is more realistic than the previous one
The revised macroeconomic scenario of the government published on 13 th August is more realistic
than the previous one, but it could prove more optimistic as compared to the latest evolution of the
macroeconomic indicators, according to the preliminary opinion of the Fiscal Council (CF).
‘CF appreciates that the revised macroeconomic scenario of the government (published on 13 th August) is more realistic than the previous one. Even so, the revised scenario might prove more optimistic taking into consideration the latest evolutions of the macroeconomic indicators (as an example, the GDP deflator which, by its advance in 2020, relatively high, almost compensates the reduction of the volume of economic activity, thus contributing to the keeping of GDPat a level similar to the previous year; or the economic contraction for 2020 could be more ample than the new value estimated by CNSP).
The Fiscal Council mentions the fact that the analysis of the data regarding the rectification rellies
on the knowledge of some elements which are supplied by MFP- such as, mainly the measures
newly adopted and their quantification, swap operations, the volume and destination of European funds.
The list of measures and the quantification of the impact appear in the present context as being very
important as their number and volume seem relevant for the level and dynamics past and future of many budgetary aggregates’ the document says.
The Fiscal Council counted the measures identified for 2020 and for next year. Thus, for 2020 there are mentioned measures for the management of the pandemic crisis:
-
the elimination of the over-excise for fuels;
-
elimination of the minimum threshold for the taxing bais in case of part-time workplaces;
-
elimination of the taxation for turnover in energy;
-
elimination of the taxation for banking assets;
-
the increase of the excise for cigarettes in January and April;
-
the increase of the minimum salary ( reflected in the dynamics of salaries in the private sector, with impact on collections for social contributions)
For 2021 there are mentioned the introduction of the minimum income for inclusion and the increase of the excise for cigarettes.
The Fiscal Council says that the new deficit target (8.6% of GDP) belongs to interval 8.1-8.9% of GDP which CF advanced previously for 2020, according to the scenario of GDP decline of 4-6%, considering it more realistic, which is an element of adequacy of the anticipated evolution of the economy to the reality.