RSS
ING: The economy will record a growth of 0.5% against Q3 over the last three months
The economy will grow over the last three months by 0.5% against Q3 according to the data offered by seasonal factors, and will record similar advances in the future quarters, the ING Bank Romania analysts anticipate.
However, depending on the reform measures and the time coordination, we could revise our estimates up to a drop of the economy, either over the first three months of 2010 or in Q2 » a report published on Monday by ING says.
The analysts of the bank consider that the high interest rates determined by the BNR strategy to avoid the depreciation of the national currency could affect the economic activity of the Q1 of next year.
« The need for financing of the government will keep high in 2010 and the improvement of the economic situation should be limited, taking into consideration the fiscal adjustments. As a result, any appreciation of the local currency under 4.1-4.2 leieuro could be rapidly reversed” the ING report says.
The economists consider that the ministry of public finances could be in the impossibility to reduce profit under 10% in January, even if BNR reduces the monetary policy interest.
« If everything goes right as regards the budget for 2010, namely if the parliament passes it in January, and Romania gets 2.3 billion euro from IMF in the second part of February, then the profit for bonds should drop starting at the end of February 2010” the bank’s analysts say.
President Traian Basescu stated last week that Romania could get on 17 February the third and the fourth part of the loan from IMF of about 2.3 billion euro, with the condition that they will meet their obligations regarding the 2010 budget.
“If Romania receives the money from IMF, the central bank could sell in February and March alost 1.2 billion euro on the market” the ING report says.
The ING analysts keep the estimate regarding the exchange rate of 4.2 leieuro at the end of next year and 3.8 leieuro in December 2011, in the context of a possible adjustment which should take place in the fiscal sector under the supervision of IMF and the European Commission.
At the same time, the economists say that Romania postponed the issueing of Eurobonds with maturity between five and ten years and a value between 0.5 and 1.5 billion euro.
« So, taking into consideration the improvement in the political environment and maybe, globally, Romania could try to achieve at least one emission of Eurobonds next year. This will take place in
Q2 of 2010” the ING economists anticipate.