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CFA Romania analysts anticipate national currency depreciation to 5.0528 lei/euro and 8.13% inflation rate
The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator, made by CFA Romania Association, dropped by 2.1 points in April 2023, to 55 points, while exchange rate anticipations show a depreciation of the leu against the euro of over 5 lei, that is an inflation rate of 8.13% in the next 12 months.
“After four months of consecutive increases, the anticipation component of the Confidence Indicator recorded a correction. The economic growth value anticipated for 2023 dropped under 3%. At the same time, the surbey confirms anticipations of continuation of the disinflation process, the anticipated inflation rate dropping to the lowest value in the last 12 months,” said Adrian Codirlasu, vicepresident of CFA Romania.
According to a press release sent by the association to Agerpres on Thursday, the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of CFA Romania Association dropped in April (by 2.1 points) in April to 55 points. This situation was due to the anticipation component, which recorded a drop of 4.8 points, to 48.8 points.
The anticipated inflation rate for 12 months continued to drop and was an average 8.13%. As for the euro/leu exchange rate, 90% of participants anticipate a leu depreciation in the next 12 months (compared to the present value).
The average anticipation value for 6 months is 4.9953 lei/euro, while for 12 months the average anticipated rate is 5.0528 lei/euro.
As for the evolution of prices for residential units in towns, 45% of participants anticipate their stability, while 45% of participants anticipate a drop in the next 12 months. Also, 65% consider that present prices are overvalued, while 30% say they are correctly evaluated.
The state budget deficit anticipated for this year: the average anticipation value is 5.1%. For 2023 the anticipated real GDP growth value dropped against the previous exercise to 2.8%. Public debt calculated as percentage in GDP is anticipated to grow to 62% in the next 12 months.
The opinion poll has been made on a monthly basis by CFA Romania Associationfor 12 years and represents an indicator by which the organization wants to calculate anticipations of financial analysts about economic activity in Romania for one year.
CFA Romania Association is a professional organization in investments in Romania, owners of the title Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), an qualification administered by CFA Institute (USA).
At present, the organization has 250 memebrs, holders of the CFA title. The CFA community also includes about 100 candidates for one of the examination levels.